How to Hold the House
Cleaning Up Corruption in Maricopa County, Arizona
by Steve Phillips and Dr. Julie Martínez Ortega
Early voting is underway in AZ-01 as David Schweikert, campaign finance violator extraordinaire, tries to convince voters to ignore his indiscretions and send him back to Washington for a 7th term in Congress. With a $125K FEC fine hanging around his neck, on top of a prior $50K FEC fine for using campaign funds for personal expenses, Schweikert faces an uphill battle. Until recently, however, he has had the wind at his back. Schweikert is literally counting on voters to disregard his ethical shortcomings, going so far as to say, “I can show you in the polling that nobody cares.”
Meanwhile, Democratic challenger Jevin Hodge is doing everything he can to convince them to clean House (pun intended).
Democrats couldn’t have picked a better candidate to provide a contrast to Schweikert’s cynical and shady image than 28-yr-old Jevin Hodge. The board president of a local Head Start program in Phoenix named for Booker T. Washington and a graduate of GWU, Hodge was raised in a single-parent working class family that valued public service. His mother, Berdetta Hodge, was the first African American woman elected to public office in Tempe.
HIGH LEVEL
AZ-01 is a vastly different district than the one Schweikert currently represents, and redistricting threw a major wrench in his hopes to remain in Congress. Unlike his old district where Republicans held a 13 percentage point edge over Democrats, Five Thirty-Eight shows the new district with a 1 percentage point advantage for Democrats.
According to the AZ Redistricting Commission’s report, the CVAP (Citizens of Voting Age) in AZ-01 is 80% white, making this a predominantly white district. Nonetheless, it is one of the most competitive districts carved out in the 2020 redistricting process, with only a 2.6 percentage point average vote spread in nine top races over the past 3 election cycles.
NMI RATING
Until this race began to narrow, the political establishment had considered this seat to be “lean Republican” despite the stats on the electorate in this newly drawn district. In late September, the Cook Political Report changed their rating from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”, finally recognizing the viability of Hodge’s ability to garner support from the new voters evaluating Schweikert. Our New Majority Index rates AZ-01 as D+1.
GROUPS ON THE GROUND
AZ-01 is located in a highly populated part of central Arizona. The Phoenix suburbs are home to several organizations that originated in the region and now lead the statewide mobilizing work.
Chispa AZ is one of the main organizations on the ground working to build power among the Latino community in Arizona. As a program of the League of Conservation Voters, the group’s goal is to “secure just and equitable access to clean air and water, healthy neighborhoods, and a safe climate for generations to come.”
Chispa AZ employs a promotora approach — a concept originated in the public health space that uses culturally competent and respected leaders to help spread information through social community networks. This community engagement strategy will serve them well on the front lines with voters as they mobilize the people who are part of the newly drawn AZ-01.
Our Voice Our Vote, a member-led organization advocating for sustainable progressive public policies, is also heavily involved in AZ-01 voter mobilization and has a solid record of communicating effectively with voters in that district. In addition, Worker Power (formerly known as CASE, Central Arizonans for a Sustainable Economy) is a “multiracial, multigenerational grassroots organization” that has been a major force in the district and has devoted significant resources to voter contacts with great success thus far.
FINANCIALS
Impressively, Hodge has outraised his incumbent opponent as of the end of the last fundraising quarter. And in a fundraising email sent to supporters earlier this week, Hodge asserts that, “We have out-raised David Schweikert in the last 4 quarters.”
PROJECTED VOTES IN 2022
If eligible voters of color in this newly drawn district were to turn out to vote at the same rates as 2020 white voters in AZ-01, Democrats could win this seat.
- In 2022, there would be over 21,263 additional voters of color in AZ-01 casting ballots if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white AZ-01 voters in 2020.
- If those additional voters of color supported the Dem candidate at the same rates as they did in 2020, Dems could see almost 14,253 additional votes for their nominee.
- Schweikert won the 2020 House race against Democrat Tipirneni by over 18,000 votes. But the 2022 voters in the newly drawn AZ-01 voted for Biden over Trump by more than 6,700 votes. Among these voters in the new AZ-01, Democrats hold just shy of a 15,000 potential vote advantage, according to our NMI calculations.
